Schalke 04 II vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen

<div> <h2>Schalke 04 II vs Rot-Weiss Oberhausen: Data Backs the Royal Blues’ Reserves at Home</h2> <p> Schalke 04 II welcome Rot-Weiss Oberhausen with the numbers pointing firmly towards a home result. While some public-facing previews this week have suggested lower positions for both sides, the season data set in hand paints a different picture: Schalke II sitting toward the top end with 17 points from eight, Oberhausen in the bottom half after seven matches. With both teams on a four-day turnaround and no major injuries flagged, performance patterns—especially venue splits—look decisive. </p> <h3>Why Schalke II Are Favoured</h3> <p> Schalke II’s home form is outstanding: 2.50 points per game, 75% wins, scoring 2.50 per match and conceding just 0.75. Their game-state control at home is elite—an immaculate 100% lead-defending rate—and they have not conceded a second-half goal on their own patch this season. The reserves’ productivity is spread, with Yassin Ben Balla, Gerrit Wegkamp and Jakob Sachse featuring repeatedly in recent scoring. Set-pieces and transitions have been profitable, and their average first goal at home comes very early (minute 8), giving them scoreboard leverage. </p> <h3>Oberhausen’s Away Struggles</h3> <p> Oberhausen have yet to crack the away code this season: 0.33 points per game, 0.67 GF and 2.33 GA per trip, and crucially, they have conceded the opener in 100% of their away fixtures. Their second halves on the road are particularly fragile—five of seven away goals conceded after the break—precisely where Schalke II tend to turn the screw. It’s not all bleak: there are signs of life at home (a 2–1 win over Dortmund II), and with creative fulcrum Moritz Stoppelkamp alongside Ayman Aourir and Eric Gueye, they have players who can change a game. But translating that to away consistency has been lacking. </p> <h3>Tactical Themes</h3> <p> Expect Schalke II to front-foot the game, press high and use early set-pieces to generate xG. Ben Balla’s arrivals and Wegkamp’s penalty-box craft can trouble a back line that has struggled when pushed back. After halftime, the hosts’ clean second-half record and 61% of season goals arriving post-HT align with a late surge technical profile. Oberhausen’s best route is to compress the middle third early, keep it level at the break, then look for transitional gains through Stoppelkamp’s passing and Gueye’s runs. If they concede first again, their away ppg when conceding first (0.33) suggests a difficult climb. </p> <h3>Markets to Watch</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Home win (1.62):</strong> Backed by the massive 2.50 vs 0.33 PPG split and Schalke’s flawless lead protection at home.</li> <li><strong>Highest scoring half – 2nd (2.00):</strong> Schalke’s second-half tilt and Oberhausen’s late concessions underpin this.</li> <li><strong>Schalke over 1.5 goals (1.53):</strong> Hosts average 2.50 GF at home; visitors ship 2.33 away.</li> <li><strong>Schalke & Under 3.5 (4.75):</strong> Two Schalke home wins have finished 3–0; their home over 3.5 rate is just 25%.</li> <li><strong>Exact score 3–0 (11.00):</strong> A speculative but data-aligned prop: Schalke have delivered 3–0 at home twice already.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Stat</h3> <p> Schalke II’s home leadDefendingRate is 100%, while Oberhausen have conceded first in 100% of away fixtures. </p> <h3>Final Word</h3> <p> Reserve leagues can be volatile, but Schalke II’s home body of work is robust and repeatable. Against an Oberhausen side still searching for a reliable away template, the smart money is on the hosts, with a strong lean toward second-half productivity. Keep an eye on Schalke’s attacking cadence after halftime—and if you’re hunting a bigger price, the Home & Under 3.5 or a small stake on 3–0 fit the statistical profile without overstating the sample. </p> </div>