FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Ulm 1846

<div> <h2>FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SSV Ulm 1846: Data-Driven Match Preview</h2> <p>Two sides seeking traction meet at the Audi Sportpark with a statistical profile that screams goals at both ends. Ingolstadt’s home numbers are modest, but the Schanzer create enough chaos to draw opponents into open games, while Ulm’s road matches have been consistently high-event.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Ingolstadt sit 17th after eight games (0.88 PPG), still chasing a first home win (0W-3D-1L). Ulm are 14th (1.25 PPG) with a lopsided split: strong at home (2.00 PPG) but vulnerable away (0.80 PPG). The form table over the last eight aligns with their league places: Ingolstadt 16th in form, Ulm 13th. Recent results hint at volatility—Ingolstadt smashed Havelse 6-2 away but were held 0-0 by Wehen; Ulm beat Regensburg 2-1 and drew 1-1 at Hoffenheim II.</p> <h3>Tactical Themes and Key Players</h3> <p>Ingolstadt’s attack is distributed—Yann Sturm, Marcel Costly, Max Besuschkow and Fredrik Carlsen have shared the goals recently. Expect vertical transitions and deliveries from wide to trouble an Ulm backline allowing 2.00 GA away. Ulm’s forward unit of Elias Löder, André Becker, Dennis Chessa and Dominik Martinovic offers aerial threat and second-phase finishing; they repeatedly find a goal on their travels, reflected in a 100% BTTS rate away.</p> <h3>Why Both Teams Should Score</h3> <p>The data converges emphatically on BTTS. Ulm away: BTTS 100% and a 3.40 total-goals average. Ingolstadt overall: BTTS 88% and a total-goals average of 3.13. Ingolstadt are notoriously fragile when ahead (leadDefendingRate 20%), inviting equalizers; Ulm’s equalizingRate away (50%) backs that up. Conversely, Ulm concede early and often on the road (average first conceded minute 19), meaning Ingolstadt should get chances to open the scoring.</p> <h3>The Halves Story: Early Edge, Late Drama</h3> <p>There’s a plausible two-act script. First half: Ulm have been behind at half-time in 60% of away games, while Ingolstadt have led at HT in 50% of home matches—value supports a home HT lean. Second half: both teams’ goals skew late (Ingolstadt score 62% after the break; Ulm away concede 60% after half-time), making Over 1.5 in the second half attractive, with potential for late trading opportunities in live markets.</p> <h3>Scorelines and Market Value</h3> <p>Ingolstadt’s home draw profile is notable: 1-1 has landed in 50% of their home fixtures. With Ulm’s persistent scoring away, the 1-1 correct score at 5.50 stands out as a value dart. While Ulm’s away record is mixed, Ingolstadt’s lack of home wins points to a pragmatic safety play on Draw/Ulm (Double Chance), especially given the Schanzer’s poor game-state management (ppgWhenScoredFirst just 0.67).</p> <h3>Team News and Intangibles</h3> <p>No significant coaching shifts are reported; both clubs emphasize continuity and incremental improvements. Ulm keeper Christian Ortag previously dealt with a muscle issue, but Ulm have conceded in every away outing regardless—defensive structure, rather than personnel alone, remains the key concern. Weather in October should be mild; no major external factors anticipated.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Modeling the venue splits and timing patterns, the most robust angle is Both Teams to Score. Secondary angles favor Draw/Ulm on the double chance and a lively second half. For the lottery ticket, 1-1 aligns with Ingolstadt’s home distribution. Expect a competitive, seesaw match with decisive moments in the last half-hour.</p> </div>