SSV Ulm 1846 vs FC Schweinfurt 05

<div> <h2>SSV Ulm 1846 vs FC Schweinfurt 05: Data-Driven Match Preview</h2> <p>Ulm host Schweinfurt at the Donaustadion on October 1 with the markets and momentum firmly behind the home side. Odds around 1.60 for an Ulm win reflect a ~62–64% implied chance, consistent with recent performances and the clubs’ early-season profiles.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Ulm have been a mid-table outfit to this point but notably stronger at home, banking 2.00 points per game. They’re fresh from a sturdy 2–1 home win over Regensburg and a road draw at Hoffenheim II, which steadied the ship after some choppy away results. Schweinfurt arrive bottom of the table (3 points, W1 L7) and on a three-game skid that includes a 1–5 home loss to Alemannia Aachen and a 0–3 home defeat to Duisburg.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies and Match Flow</h3> <p>Expect Ulm to apply control through the middle and exploit wide overloads. They are excellent at protecting advantages (100% lead-defending rate), which dovetails disastrously with Schweinfurt’s inability to respond when behind (0.00 points per game when conceding first; equalizing rate 12%). Ulm’s second half has been particularly solid at the Donaustadion (0 goals conceded after HT so far), whereas Schweinfurt’s defensive structure tends to unravel after halftime — they’ve allowed 13 of 20 goals in second halves, including a glaring 61–75’ window where they’ve conceded eight.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Home vs away: Ulm 2.00 PPG at home; Schweinfurt 0.75 PPG away.</li> <li>Ulm home GA: 1.00 per game; Schweinfurt away GA: 2.25 per game.</li> <li>Over 2.5 hit rates: Ulm overall 75% (home 67%); Schweinfurt away 75%.</li> <li>Schweinfurt attack vs league: 0.63 GF per game (league 1.54), 0% clean sheets, 62% failed to score.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Players</h3> <p>For Ulm, recent scorers Elias Löder and André Becker carry the main threat, supported by industrious wide contributors such as Dennis Chessa and the creative output around the box. Schweinfurt lean on Manuel Wintzheimer’s movement and finishing, with Erik Shuranov offering impact minutes off the bench — but the supply line remains inconsistent despite Johannes Geis’ set-piece quality. If Ulm get the first goal, Schweinfurt’s lack of in-game resilience is likely to show.</p> <h3>Best Betting Angles</h3> <p>The straightforward play is Ulm to Win at 1.60. The statistical gap in game-state performance (Ulm’s 100% lead-defense vs Schweinfurt’s 12% equalizing) strengthens the favorite’s case. Totals-wise, Over 2.5 (1.62) tracks with both teams’ trend lines — Schweinfurt away matches have been open (75% over 2.5), and Ulm home matches are 67% over 2.5. For value hunters, combining match state and totals works: Ulm & Under 4.5 (2.00) captures the likely home control without demanding a rout, while BTTS No (2.10) rides Schweinfurt’s 62% “failed to score” rate.</p> <h3>Scoreline and Risk Considerations</h3> <p>A tidy 2–0 home win (7.50) aligns with Schweinfurt’s propensity to lose to nil and Ulm’s second-half defensive lock. The main red flag is Ulm’s tendency to concede first early in matches; however, Schweinfurt’s poor first-half returns away and inability to defend leads mitigate upset risk. Early-season variance still applies, but Schweinfurt’s underperformance is severe across virtually every indicator.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Ulm should convert home advantage against the league’s basement side. The numbers support a home win, strong second-half control, and a decent chance of limiting Schweinfurt to zero or one goal. Recommended bets in order: Ulm to Win (1.60), Over 2.5 (1.62), Ulm & Under 4.5 (2.00), with BTTS No (2.10) as a higher-price alternative.</p> </div>