FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen

<div> <h3>FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden: Data Says “Late Wehen Edge”</h3> <p>Two sides on differing early paths meet at Audi Sportpark. The raw numbers point firmly to an away side that manages game states better and a home side that has struggled to turn promising phases into wins. While some external outlets claim Ingolstadt are flying, the database standings here show Ingolstadt 18th after five games (3 points) and Wehen Wiesbaden 6th (10 points in six), which aligns with the underlying metrics.</p> <h3>Patterns That Matter</h3> <p>Ingolstadt’s home matches have been chaotic: they’ve scored first in two of three but possess a <strong>0% lead-defending rate</strong>. Their home split shows 75% of their goals scored in the first half but 80% of goals conceded after the interval. That profile has already bitten them—late concessions have cost multiple points, including a stoppage-time equalizer and an 87th-minute defeat.</p> <p>Wehen’s signature is the second half. Sixty-seven percent of their goals come after the break, with <strong>four goals in the 76–90’ window</strong>. They spend more time leading (34%) than most, concede fewer minutes trailing (16%), and have scored first in 83% of their matches. Even away, they’ve opened the scoring two out of three times and defended half of those leads.</p> <h3>Tactical Themes</h3> <p>Expect Ingolstadt’s 4-2-3-1 to generate first-half pressure through advanced midfield runners and wide overloads—names like Besuschkow, Deichmann, Kaygin and Sturm have contributed across the opening fixtures. Yet the issue is control: once opponents adjust, Ingolstadt give up territory and transition chances.</p> <p>Wehen tend to start structured and grow into matches. With <strong>Nikolas Agrafiotis</strong> in strong league scoring form and <strong>Fatih Kaya</strong> a constant threat around the box and on penalties, they carry late danger. Ball-winning midfielders like <strong>Tarik Gözüsirin</strong> and runners such as <strong>Lukas Schleimer</strong> support a shift in tempo after halftime, where Wehen excel at exploiting tired lines and loose defensive spacing.</p> <h3>Numbers vs Odds: Where’s the Value?</h3> <p>Books have <em>Draw No Bet (Wehen +0)</em> around 2.40. With Wehen’s overall PPG (1.67) dwarfing Ingolstadt’s (0.60) and given Ingolstadt’s inability to close games, that price looks generous. A safer hedge is <em>Double Chance (Draw/Away)</em> near 1.77. The second-half goal markets also appeal: <em>Over 1.5 second half</em> at 1.74 fits both teams’ splits, particularly Ingolstadt’s tendency to concede post-HT and Wehen’s late surges.</p> <p>The BTTS market (Yes ~1.45) still rates as a data-backed add, with Ingolstadt’s BTTS currently at 100% overall and at home, plus Wehen’s 67% BTTS away. For a longer price, the <em>Team to Score Last: Wehen</em> at 2.20 aligns tightly with the time-segment charts.</p> <h3>Fatigue, Rest and Conditions</h3> <p>Wehen played on Sept 16, meaning a four-day turnaround; Ingolstadt last played on Sept 13, so they have a slight rest advantage. However, the second-half biases remain strong, suggesting that even with more rest Ingolstadt’s post-HT drop-off persists until proven otherwise. Weather should be neutral—cool, dry early-autumn conditions around 14–18°C.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Nikolas Agrafiotis (Wehen): Multiple league goals already; late, decisive contributions are a theme.</li> <li>Fatih Kaya (Wehen): Penalty-taker presence and good movement between the lines.</li> <li>Max Besuschkow / Yannick Deichmann (Ingolstadt): Progressive passing and second-line runs generate early chances.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected Match Flow</h3> <p>Ingolstadt can edge periods of the first half, but Wehen’s control increases after HT. With Ingolstadt’s BTTS trend and weak lead defense, expect both to score, with the decisive moment likely in the final quarter-hour—where Wehen’s numbers shine.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <p>Top angle: Wehen Draw No Bet at 2.40. Supporting plays: BTTS Yes (1.45), Second Half Over 1.5 (1.74), and Wehen to score last (2.20). For a speculative price, 1-2 correct score (9.50) matches the statistical narrative of BTTS and a late Wehen winner.</p> <p><em>Note:</em> Early-season caveat applies; sample sizes are small. Also, conflicting external sentiment about league positions is flagged—this preview relies on the supplied in-database standings and match logs.</p> </div>