Caen vs Quevilly
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<html> <head> <title>Caen vs Quevilly-Rouen Métropole: Betting Preview, Odds and Tactical Insight</title> <meta name="description" content="In-depth preview for Caen vs Quevilly in France National 1, featuring odds, stats, and tactical analysis." /> </head> <body> <h2>Caen’s defensive strength meets Quevilly’s attacking slide</h2> <p>Stade Michel-d’Ornano hosts a pivotal National 1 clash as Caen seek to consolidate mid-table stability against relegation-threatened Quevilly-Rouen Métropole. The numbers scream low margin, low scoring. Caen have turned their home stadium into a defensive fortress, conceding just three goals in eight home fixtures—good for a 75% clean-sheet rate. Quevilly arrive with a nine-match winless run and three straight blanks, underscoring the primary narrative: Can the visitors find a way past one of the league’s most disciplined home back lines?</p> <h3>Form and standings context</h3> <p>Caen sit 10th (21 points from 16), trending slightly upward over the last eight (points per game up 5.3%, goals for up 10.6%). Their games have been draw-prone, yet they’re unbeaten in six, buoyed by a resilient defensive setup. Quevilly are 15th (10 points), with a stark drop-off: just 0.25 PPG across the last eight, six losses in that spell, and a recent 0-0 that at least snapped a four-match losing streak. The broader sentiment aligns with the market’s favoritism for Caen.</p> <h3>Tactical matchup and venue dynamics</h3> <p>At Michel-d’Ornano, Caen’s blueprint is pragmatic: structured out of possession, stable rest-defense, and a preference for controlling game states once ahead. Data supports that entirely—at home they defend a lead 100% of the time. Conversely, Quevilly have not equalized once away all season (equalizing rate 0% on the road), and when they concede first, they take zero points on average. This tactical asymmetry heavily favors Caen if they can carve the opening goal.</p> <h3>Goal timing and game flow</h3> <p>Expect a slow burn. Caen’s average first goal at home arrives around the 56th minute; 62% of their home matches are 0-0 at half-time. National 1’s attritional rhythm and January conditions in Normandy tend to suppress tempo early. Quevilly’s away data skews to first-half concessions, but their current attacking malaise hints more at sterile possession or direct but ineffective counters than chaotic, chance-heavy exchanges. The second half, where Caen have shown a knack for late strikes, could tilt it.</p> <h3>Key individuals</h3> <p>Ivann Botella’s timely runs and finishing have mattered in tight games for Caen, supported by midfielders like Lorenzo Rajot and the late-game influence of Garland Gbelle. The stars, though, are collective: a cohesive back unit and reliable goalkeeping that underpin this to-nil profile. For Quevilly, early-season contributors like Achille Anani and Plamedi Nsingi need a spark—chances have been limited and conversion poor during the current drought.</p> <h3>The betting angle</h3> <ul> <li>Clean sheet Caen is the headline. A 75% home clean-sheet rate against opponents who haven’t scored in three is compelling, with pricing still generous.</li> <li>Totals lean under. Caen’s home total goals average is just 1.25; under 2.25 at plus money provides cover on a 1-0 or 2-0 type game with a push at two goals.</li> <li>First half quiet. With Caen’s HT 0-0 at 62% and deliberate starts, under 1.0 HT fits the tempo forecast.</li> <li>Match winner leans Caen, but the draw risk advises caution. Asian -0.5 is acceptable, sized down.</li> </ul> <h3>Projected script</h3> <p>Expect a cagey first half. Caen’s most likely path is patient pressure, territorial control, and a premium chance after the hour—set piece or a transition clean-up. If they score first, the data strongly suggests that’s curtains. The 1-0 correct score sits right in the heart of this matchup’s identity.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Caen to keep a clean sheet is the smartest core angle. Combine with under 2.25 for a controlled, risk-aware portfolio. If you chase price, the 1-0 exact score is the right kind of speculative add-on.</p> </body> </html>
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