Fleury 91 vs Versailles

<div> <h2>Fleury 91 vs Versailles — Data-Driven Match Preview</h2> <p>National 1 returns to Stade Auguste Gentelet on Friday with second-placed Versailles visiting eighth-placed Fleury 91. The Oracle weighs up a compelling clash between a poor home side and the league’s most reliable travelers.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Versailles enter in outstanding shape: 6 wins in 8, co-leading the form table (19 points last eight). Away they’ve been ruthless: 3 wins and a draw from four, conceding just once. Fleury trend mid-table across eight matches, with their best work coming on the road. At home they’ve taken just 3 points from 3, with back-to-back defeats (0-2 vs Aubagne, 1-2 vs Caen) after an opening 4-1 against bottom-placed Stade Briochin.</p> <h3>Style and Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Versailles are built on control and defensive integrity. Their away metrics—0.25 GA per game, 75% clean sheets, time trailing 0%—scream compact block, disciplined pressing triggers, and efficient shot selection. Offensively they’re not gung-ho, but the likes of Shelton Guillaume and Cédric Odzoumo have produced key goals in timely moments.</p> <p>Fleury can start fast (average minute scored first at home: 2), but that stat is heavily skewed by one explosive home match. More telling is their second-half drop-off: 80% of home goals conceded arrive after half-time. If Fleury fall behind, their metrics nosedive—0.00 PPG at home when conceding first, with an equalizing rate of 0%—a damning indicator against a Versailles side that has scored first in 100% of away matches and leads at the break 75% of the time.</p> <h3>Goal Environment</h3> <p>This is the knot to untangle. Fleury home games average 3.33 goals with 67% BTTS; Versailles away games average just 1.50 with under 2.5 hitting 100%. In National 1, traveling elites often suppress variance: Versailles’ profile suggests a low-scoring away control game, typically 0-1 or 0-2. Given Fleury’s inability to recover when behind, the first goal market is pivotal and should dictate the overall total.</p> <h3>Key Match-Ups</h3> <ul> <li>Guillaume/Odzoumo (Versailles) vs Fleury center-backs: decisive movement around the box has delivered critical goals for Versailles.</li> <li>Fleury’s Faradé in transitions vs Versailles’ double pivot: can Fleury manufacture high-quality counters early, or will the visitors’ compactness choke those lanes?</li> <li>Second-half control: Versailles’ away concession profile (just 1 goal after HT) vs Fleury’s late-game wobble at home.</li> </ul> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>Some markets appear miscalibrated. Versailles are underdogs at ~2.96 (match winner), yet all venue-adjusted indicators point their way. The best edges are derivative markets that isolate their strongest tendencies:</p> <ul> <li>Versailles to score first at 2.20 aligns with 100% away first-goal rate.</li> <li>First Half DNB Versailles (1.91) leverages a 75% HT-lead trend and Fleury’s slow equalizing profile.</li> <li>Draw or Versailles (1.47) protects against a stubborn opening but reflects the visitors’ unbeaten away run.</li> <li>Fleury 0 goals (2.72) is supported by Versailles’ 75% away clean sheets.</li> <li>For a bigger swing, 0-1 correct score (6.45) mirrors Versailles’ typical away pattern.</li> </ul> <h3>Risks and Caveats</h3> <p>It’s still early season data. Fleury’s early home explosion shows they can find moments. Also, no confirmed team news is available in this feed—always check lineups for late changes, especially in National 1 where squad depth varies.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Versailles’ away control profile strongly outweighs Fleury’s erratic home output. The first-goal dynamic is decisive here. The Oracle favors Versailles-driven early markets and expects a low-to-moderate total with the visitors managing game state if they strike first.</p> </div>