Quevilly vs Fleury 91

<div> <h2>Quevilly vs Fleury 91: Data Favors the Visitors’ Steel</h2> <p>Quevilly Rouen host Fleury 91 on 3 October in National 1 with both clubs seeking traction early in the 2025/26 season. Bookmakers marginally lean toward Fleury, reflecting the visitors’ sturdy away form and Quevilly’s continuing struggle to translate flashes of progress into consistent results at home.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Quevilly arrive 14th (7 pts), with momentum forged away from home: back-to-back road victories have steadied nerves after a bumpy start. However, at Diochon they have yet to win this season (0W, 1D, 1L), and the trend of conceding first remains a thorn. Discipline has been a theme since last year—managerial tweaks aim to reduce the self-inflicted damage.</p> <p>Fleury 91 sit 9th (10 pts) and have impressed on their travels: two straight away wins to nil (3-0 at Villefranche, 1-0 at Concarneau) underline their compact shape and quick transitions. Newcomer Kevin Farade has hit the ground running, and the side’s collective buy-in shows in their elite lead protection.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Venue split: Quevilly home PPG 0.50 vs Fleury away PPG 1.75.</li> <li>Defensive gulf: Fleury away GA 0.25 with 75% away clean sheets; Quevilly home GA 1.50.</li> <li>Starts: Quevilly conceded first in 100% of home matches; Fleury’s average first goal away minute is 17’.</li> <li>Game-state dominance: Fleury have spent 41% of away minutes leading and 0% trailing this season; leadDefendingRate away 100%.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical Themes</h3> <p>Expect Fleury to keep lines compact and screen central spaces, then break through Farade’s channel runs and targeted set plays. Without the ball, their distances are tight and they deny clear entries—hence the 0.25 GA away. Quevilly should lean on Achille Anani’s hold-up and penalty-box movement; recent penalties (Leborgne, Anani) are a reminder that set-piece moments can keep them alive even when open-play chance quality dips.</p> <h3>Player Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Kevin Farade (Fleury): Multiple early-season goals; timing of runs matches Fleury’s quick-start profile.</li> <li>Achille Anani (Quevilly): Team’s primary finisher; reliable from the spot; his duel with Fleury’s centre-backs is pivotal.</li> </ul> <h3>Totals and BTTS Lens</h3> <p>Fleury away games are low event (1.25 total goals on average). The under trend is robust, though it collides with Quevilly’s tiny-sample 100% home BTTS. On balance, the visitors’ clean-sheet rate and zero time spent trailing away suggest a tilt toward an under, using a safety net (Under 2.25) against small-sample volatility.</p> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>With the market pricing Quevilly/Fleury relatively evenly, Fleury +0.25 around 2.10 looks the standout value: you profit on an away win and still cash half on a draw. Team to score first (Fleury at ~2.01) aligns smartly with Quevilly’s early concessions at home and Fleury’s sharp starts. For those seeking a bigger payday, 0-1 at 6.10 fits the visitors’ away profile and the hosts’ modest home output.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Fleury’s defense-first approach travels, and Quevilly’s home data offers little to contradict it. The model leans toward an away-positive result in a tight, low-scoring contest. The best blend of probability and price: Fleury +0.25, Fleury to score first, and Under 2.25 goals.</p> </div>