Le Havre vs Amiens
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<html> <head> <title>Le Havre vs Amiens — Coupe de France Round of 64</title> <meta name="description" content="In-depth preview and betting analysis for Le Havre vs Amiens in the Coupe de France, with stats, form, injuries, and tactical insights."> </head> <body> <h1>Le Havre vs Amiens: Cup Stakes Meet Contrasting Styles</h1> <p>Stade Océane hosts a Round of 64 tie with a familiar storyline: a Ligue 1 side under pressure against a road-proud Ligue 2 opponent. Le Havre’s recent league run has been barren in front of goal, but their home structure remains resilient. Amiens arrive with a fully fit squad and strong away attacking splits, hinting at a more balanced cup tie than the market suggests.</p> <h2>Form and Momentum</h2> <p>Le Havre are winless in six league matches and have failed to score in four straight Ligue 1 outings, yet the performances haven’t been dismal at home: a 0-0 with Paris FC and a narrow 0-1 vs Lille suggest defensive stability with late lapses rather than collapse. Their season averages underline a low-event profile (home total goals 2.13), boosted by strong second-half resilience (home goals: 67% after the break, only two conceded in second halves at home).</p> <p>Amiens, mid-table in Ligue 2, have been volatile but threatening away from home: 1.56 goals per away game, with 67% of away matches seeing Over 2.5 and 67% hitting BTTS. They recently snapped a winless run with a late winner at Pau, reinforcing a fast-start/ropey-lead-defense identity.</p> <h2>Injuries, Rotation and Squad News</h2> <p>Le Havre face notable absences: Abdoulaye Touré (knee), Reda Khadra (shoulder), and Simon Ebonog (hamstring) are out. That’s a blow to midfield balance and attacking creativity. There is a chance of cup rotation in goal—with Lionel Mpasi-nzau mentioned in previews—though Mory Diaw has been first choice in the league. Amiens report a clean bill of health, offering continuity and options in wide and midfield areas (Monconduit, Lobry, Lutin) and pace in transition (Ikia Dimi, Averlant).</p> <h2>Tactical Matchup</h2> <p>Expect Le Havre to maintain their compact mid-block and rely on set pieces and transitions through Issa Soumaré and Rassoul Ndiaye. The hosts tend to concede early in halves at home but grow into games after the interval. Amiens’ away data is revealing: they’ve scored first in 78% of trips and led at half-time in 67%, but their lead-defending rate away is only 50%, and they concede more after the break. That dovetails with Le Havre’s second-half tilt and points to a game state where Amiens can strike first, then face a prolonged pushback.</p> <h2>Key Numbers That Matter</h2> <ul> <li>Le Havre home BTTS: 62%</li> <li>Amiens away BTTS: 67% and Over 2.5: 67%</li> <li>Amiens away scored first: 78%; Le Havre scored first at home: 25%</li> <li>Le Havre home second-half goals: 67% of GF; Amiens concede more after HT away</li> </ul> <h2>Market View and Value</h2> <p>The 1.30 quoted on Le Havre looks heavy given their current attacking absences and the cup’s variance. The more enticing angles sit in derivatives. BTTS is fairly priced at 1.95 given both sides’ venue-specific trends. Amiens to score first at 3.95 is the standout value based on their away profile versus Le Havre’s slow starts. The “Highest Scoring Half: 2nd Half” at 2.15 aligns with both sides’ goal-timing tendencies and suits a cup game likely to open after the interval.</p> <h2>Players To Watch</h2> <p>For Le Havre, Issa Soumaré’s ball-carrying and foul-winning could be decisive in generating set-piece pressure—vital in a tight cup tie. Rassoul Ndiaye’s late-box arrivals provide one of the few reliable goal threats. For Amiens, Yvan Ikia Dimi has delivered key away goals, while Kylian Kaïboue’s recent scoring form and set-piece involvement make him an under-the-radar factor. The Amiens midfield of Monconduit and Lobry should control spells of possession and feed runners wide.</p> <h2>The Oracle’s Verdict</h2> <p>Le Havre’s top-flight structure and home field should see them through, but the odds underrate Amiens’ away threat. Expect the visitors to pose real questions early, before Le Havre assert themselves in the second half. The best value sits with BTTS, Amiens to score first, and second-half centric markets. A 1-1 in 90 minutes is very live in a cup that often rewards the disciplined underdog and punishes favorites who start slowly.</p> </body> </html>
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