Tammeka vs Kuressaare

<div> <h2>Tammeka vs Kuressaare: Relegation Fight With Late-Game Drama Potential</h2> <p>Two struggling sides meet in Tartu on Friday as Tammeka host Kuressaare in the Meistriliiga. The table puts them 8th and 9th respectively, separated by just two points, and both camps arrive under pressure. With six days’ rest since their last league action, the spotlight is firmly on who can find a result that eases the relegation anxiety.</p> <h3>Form and Motivation</h3> <p>Tammeka’s season has been volatile: seven wins from 29 and a home PPG of 0.87. They recently battled hard in a 2-1 loss at Flora and were hammered by Vaprus (1-4, 1-8 across two meetings), underlining defensive issues. Kuressaare, meanwhile, have six wins in 29 and a grim away PPG of 0.36; they’ve lost 5 straight away matches and 6 of their last 8 overall. With the bottom two within reach, this is a six-pointer in all but name.</p> <h3>Venue Splits and Why They Matter</h3> <p>Home vs away is decisive here. Tammeka are vulnerable, but Kuressaare’s away output is among the league’s poorest: 0.79 GF and 2.43 GA per away match, with a 79% defeat rate and only two away games all season where they scored more than once. Tammeka’s home defense isn’t elite, yet they defend leads well (80% lead-defending rate). If the hosts net first, the away side’s ability to come back is limited.</p> <h3>Goal Flow: Expect Late Action</h3> <p>Kuressaare’s away goals against profile is skewed to the second half (21 conceded vs 13 in first half), including an alarming 11 conceded in the 76-90’ window. Tammeka’s home profile is almost the inverse—more first-half concessions (19) than second (9). The net effect favors late drama: second half as the highest-scoring half is a logical angle, and “home to score last” fits the pattern.</p> <h3>Head-to-Head and Tactical Notes</h3> <p>Recent H2H favors Tammeka: three wins and two draws in the last five meetings, including a 3-2 away win this June. On the pitch, expect Tammeka to build around Tristan Koskor’s presence up front, with support from Giacomo Uggeri and Olawale Tanimowo stretching the channels. For Kuressaare, the threat is distributed: Aleksander Iljin, Jevgeni Demidov, Otto-Robert Lipp and Andero Kivi have all chipped in with a couple each, while Marten Pajunurm is a reliable penalty taker. Kuressaare’s challenge is sustaining pressure away from home; their lead-defending rate of 17% is the worst profile in this matchup.</p> <h3>Statistical Edges vs Market Prices</h3> <ul> <li>Kuressaare Team Total Under 1.5 (1.75): They have scored 2+ in just 2/14 away games (14%). The price implies ~57%—the observed rate indicates much higher, making this a standout value.</li> <li>Asian Handicap Tammeka -0.25 (1.84): Kuressaare’s away numbers (0.36 PPG; 79% defeats) vs Tammeka’s H2H dominance indicate a fair edge to the hosts while keeping draw protection on half-stake.</li> <li>Highest-Scoring Half: 2nd (1.91): Kuressaare’s late concession rate suggests the game opens up after the break.</li> <li>BTTS No (2.75): Market leans too strongly to “Yes.” With Kuressaare’s 36% away FTS and modest Tammeka home BTTS rate (53%), the “No” is priced generously.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Player Watch</h3> <p>Koskor’s hold-up and aerial presence can trouble a Kuressaare back line that fades late, while Uggeri’s timing in the box has yielded recent key goals. For Kuressaare, Iljin and Demidov offer intelligent movement, and Lipp’s directness can hurt in transitions. Still, the away side’s lack of sustained chance creation on the road remains the limiting factor.</p> <h3>Weather and Conditions</h3> <p>Cloudy and cool (12–15°C) with light winds—conditions should be fine for a competitive, high-intensity relegation scrap.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Tammeka’s home edge and Kuressaare’s severe away frailty point to the hosts avoiding defeat and to the visitors falling short of two goals. Late-game patterns hint at second-half action. Best value lies with Kuressaare Under 1.5 team goals, Tammeka -0.25, and a look at the second half as the highest-scoring period. For long-shot seekers, Tammeka 2-1 at 8.10 aligns with the numbers and the H2H trend.</p> </div>