Everton vs Nottingham Forest
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<html> <head><title>Everton vs Nottingham Forest – Match Preview, Odds & Betting Insight</title></head> <body> <h2>Everton vs Nottingham Forest: Data Says Tight, Low-Scoring</h2> <p>Hill Dickinson Stadium hosts a quietly pivotal Premier League clash as Everton welcome Nottingham Forest. The numbers paint a clear picture: expect a cagey, low-event game where fine margins and set pieces could decide it.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Everton sit mid-table with a balanced 6-3-5 overall record (1.50 PPG), stabilised by a dependable defensive structure. Recent results include a gritty 1-0 away win at Bournemouth and a similar 1-0 at Manchester United, offset by a heavy home blip against Newcastle. Forest arrive with 15 points and a slightly improving eight-game trend (1.25 PPG), punctuated by a valuable 1-0 win at Wolves but hampered by a blunt attack and frequent blanks.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics and Stylistic Matchup</h3> <p>Goodison-turned-Hill Dickinson remains a tough venue. Everton’s home outputs are modest (1.14 GF, 1.29 GA), but crucially they own a 43% clean-sheet rate at home and defend leads at 75%. That profile fits manager Sean Dyche’s pragmatic 4-4-1-1/4-5-1 blueprint: strong box defending, first contact on set plays, and second-half pressure when the game loosens.</p> <p>Forest’s away numbers (0.86 GF, 1.29 GA) reinforce a conservative match. They’ve gone over 2.5 in only 29% of away fixtures and both teams have scored in just 29%. Away results skew to stalemates or narrow defeats, reflective of a side that’s organized without consistent final-third punch.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Look Late for Everton</h3> <p>Everton’s home goals skew later (62% in the second half; three goals in the 76–90 window). Forest, meanwhile, concede far more late at home, and while their away split is steadier, they still allow a higher share post-interval than in the opening quarter. This underpins two angles: overall unders and an edge for Everton to find a second-half breakthrough.</p> <h3>Key Players and Matchups</h3> <p>Iliman Ndiaye is Everton’s most reliable route to goal (4 league strikes; 27% of team total). His ball-carrying between lines suits a game state where Forest sit in and the Toffees probe patiently. Jack Grealish’s recent contributions add secondary threat, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall arriving late into the box. At set plays, Tarkowski and (if fit) Keane remain aerial dangers against a Forest side that can be stretched by quality delivery.</p> <p>For Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White remains the talisman, but the attack has lacked continuity: half of their matches have ended without a goal scored, and away failures sit at 43%. Forest’s ppg when conceding first is only 0.5, underscoring the importance of the first goal.</p> <h3>Injuries and Availability</h3> <p>Everton reportedly manage knocks to Michael Keane and a hamstring issue for Seamus Coleman, while Tim Iroegbunam is suspended. For Forest, there have been doubts around Murillo and Morgan Gibbs-White in recent reporting, along with other niggles in defense. Depth and the hosts’ defensive structure slightly tilt the availability factor toward Everton, but monitor final team news.</p> <h3>Tactical Outlook</h3> <ul> <li>Everton: compact mid-block, aggressive on first balls and restarts, increasing width after the break. Expect controlled tempo and a premium on set-piece execution.</li> <li>Forest: 4-2-3-1 shape that compresses central lanes, looks to transition through Gibbs-White/Hudson-Odoi. Risk-averse away approach favors containment.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>The market leans to low totals, but still leaves room. Under 2.5 at 1.70 rates value given Everton’s and Forest’s splits (43% and 29% over 2.5 respectively). BTTS No at 1.91 is supported by Forest’s 50% failed-to-score overall and 43% away, plus Everton’s 43% home clean sheets. Everton DNB at 1.53 is a solid safety net given the venue and game-state metrics (Everton 75% lead defense at home). At a bigger price, Everton clean sheet at 2.55 aligns with the same data.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Everton to shade a low-scoring contest, with the decisive moment likely after halftime. A 1-0 home win fits the median patterns, with a second-half goal the likeliest differentiator.</p> </body> </html>
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