Brighton vs West Ham
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Brighton vs West Ham – Match Preview, Odds & Betting Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Brighton vs West Ham: Amex Stadium, Sunday</h2> <p>Brighton welcome West Ham to the Amex with momentum, home comfort and attacking fluency on their side, while West Ham arrive under pressure but buoyed by the return of Lucas Paquetá. The market makes Brighton fair favourites, but the data tells a stronger story about goals and, specifically, late goals.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>In the Premier League table, Brighton (6-4-4, 22 pts) sit firmly in the top-half pack, while West Ham (3-3-8, 12 pts) hover just above the relegation talk. Recent narratives are consistent: Brighton are vibrant going forward but vulnerable defensively; West Ham are searching for stability and a result to halt a sliding trend.</p> <p>Brighton’s form over the last eight league games has improved against their season baseline: 1.75 points per game vs 1.57 overall, with attacking output up and goals conceded inching down. West Ham’s last eight show a modest uplift to 1.00 PPG, but the winless run (three) looms and performances have been patchy.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Expect Brighton to set up in a 4‑2‑3‑1, pushing full-backs high and relying on the dynamism of Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh, with Georginio Rutter knitting zones and Danny Welbeck leading the line. The downside of their approach is transition space, which West Ham will target with Bowen’s direct running and Paquetá’s threading passes on the break.</p> <p>Under Nuno Espírito Santo, West Ham are trending toward a more compact shape in a 4‑2‑3‑1/4‑3‑3 hybrid. The manager’s pre-match confirmation of Paquetá’s return to the starting XI is a genuine boost for control and chance creation in advanced areas. Max Kilman’s leadership and Kyle Walker-Peters’ two-way work remain essential for an away defensive effort that must withstand Brighton’s wide overloads.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Brighton at home: 2.00 PPG; 2.14 GF and 1.43 GA per game.</li> <li>Over 2.5 goals hits 86% at the Amex; BTTS hits 86%.</li> <li>West Ham away games: 2.71 total goals on average; BTTS 57%.</li> <li>Second-half surge: Brighton score 71% of their goals after the break; West Ham 62%.</li> </ul> <p>Those second-half splits are not noise. Both teams’ defensive profiles soften after halftime; Brighton’s late scoring (10 goals in the 76–90 segment) and West Ham’s own late push (five away goals in that window) make “second half to be the highest scoring” and “second half over 1.5” compelling angles.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p><strong>Brighton:</strong> Danny Welbeck has seven league goals and continues to time his runs well in a team that delivers crosses and cutbacks at volume. Mitoma and Minteh stretch full-backs 1v1, while van Hecke has contributed goals and remains a set-piece threat.</p> <p><strong>West Ham:</strong> Jarrod Bowen is the main outlet, with his diagonal runs behind full-backs crucial in transitions. Paquetá’s return is pivotal for West Ham’s final-third quality; expect him to drift between lines and try to pull Brighton’s pivot out of shape. Callum Wilson provides penalty-box gravity and set-piece menace.</p> <h3>Market Perspective and Betting Angles</h3> <p>With goals the theme at the Amex, the pricing opens doors. Both Teams To Score at 1.73 is standout given Brighton’s 86% BTTS home rate and West Ham’s improved attacking profile with Paquetá back. Over 2.5 at 1.65 also sits below our modeled probability, and the 2nd half to be the highest scoring at 1.90 is aligned with both sides’ late-goal patterns.</p> <p>For a bigger return, Brighton to win & BTTS at 3.00 captures the likelihood that Brighton’s superior home process eventually tells, without banking on a rare clean sheet. Welbeck anytime at 2.05 is a fair prop given Brighton’s 2.14 GF at home and West Ham’s 1.57 GA away, with Welbeck central to chance volume.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Brighton 2-1 West Ham. The hosts should have enough to edge it, but Paquetá and Bowen give West Ham a live threat, especially in transition. Expect the key swings after halftime, where both teams’ trend lines point to action.</p> </body> </html>
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