Crystal Palace vs Brighton
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<html> <head><title>Crystal Palace vs Brighton — A23 Derby Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Form and Context</h2> <p>Selhurst Park hosts the A23 derby with just a point separating Crystal Palace (9th) and Brighton (10th). Palace have quietly built an unbeaten home record (2W-3D-0L), tightening under Oliver Glasner while finding timely goals through Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaïla Sarr. Brighton, under Fabian Hürzeler, remain high-event but uneven away from home: 0.8 points per game on their travels and 2.0 goals conceded per away match.</p> <h2>Injury Picture and Selection Themes</h2> <p>Palace are without Cheick Doucouré and Chadi Riad, and Chris Richards is a doubt (calf), though the rest of the core looks intact. For Brighton, the creative axis is undercut: Solly March and Kaoru Mitoma are sidelined, Adam Webster remains out, and Jack Hinshelwood and Brajan Gruda are long shots. That narrows Brighton’s wing dynamism and ball-carrying threat—an area where they previously hurt Palace in transition.</p> <h2>Tactical Matchups</h2> <p>Glasner’s 3-4-2-1 seeks early control and disciplined spacing. Palace’s wing-backs Daniel Muñoz and Tyrick Mitchell attack the channels, while Eberechi Eze and Daichi Kamada occupy half-spaces to feed Mateta. Expect Palace to attack Brighton’s full-back corridors, where rotations are still settling under Hürzeler.</p> <p>Brighton’s pressing is still being tuned. Without March/Mitoma, wide progression leans on Ferdi Kadıoğlu and younger forwards like Yankuba Minteh or Brajan Gruda (if fit), plus Danny Welbeck’s movement to pin centre-backs. Hürzeler’s side often come alive after the interval, a hallmark of their fitness and bench impact.</p> <h2>Goal Timing — The Decisive Narrative</h2> <p>The single clearest pattern: Brighton have <strong>lost the first half in all five away games</strong>, scoring <strong>zero</strong> first-half away goals and conceding six. Palace, meanwhile, have led at half-time in 60% of home games. That statistical collision heavily favors Palace early.</p> <p>Flip the script after the break. Brighton score 76% of their goals in second halves (100% away), while Palace both score and concede more after the interval at Selhurst. Late drama is a feature: Palace have conceded four goals in the 76–90’ window overall; Brighton away have scored five in the same period. Expect tactical subs and open phases late.</p> <h2>Key Individuals</h2> <ul> <li><strong>Jean-Philippe Mateta (Palace)</strong>: 6 league goals, 4 at home; 43% share of Palace’s league goals. Strong finisher and penalty threat.</li> <li><strong>Danny Welbeck (Brighton)</strong>: 6 league goals (3 away). Still Brighton’s most dependable outlet, particularly as the game stretches late.</li> <li><strong>Marc Guéhi & Maxence Lacroix (Palace)</strong>: Aerial presence and duels in both boxes; essential for withstanding Brighton’s late push.</li> </ul> <h2>What The Numbers Say</h2> <p>Palace: 0.9 GA per game (better than league average 1.34), unbeaten at home. Brighton: total goals average 3.2 per game with 80% BTTS—fun but volatile. Away, Brighton have conceded first in 100% and trailed for 69% of minutes; they rally late, evidenced by strong equalizing rates and 2H output.</p> <h2>The Oracle’s Verdict</h2> <p>The first half should tilt Palace. The trendline—Brighton’s slow away starts versus Palace’s fast home starts—is too strong to ignore. After half-time, expect Brighton to surge and the game to open. That points to a second half with more action and a good chance both nets bulge before full-time.</p> <p>From a betting perspective, the standout angle is <strong>Crystal Palace to win the first half</strong>—a price that hasn’t fully caught up with Brighton’s away HT profile. Secondary value lies in <strong>Second Half – Highest Scoring Half</strong> and <strong>BTTS</strong>. For player props, <strong>Mateta Anytime</strong> is an attractive number given his usage and Brighton’s away concessions.</p> <h2>Projected Flow</h2> <p>Palace to assert early control and lead at the break, Brighton responding after the interval with more territory and chances. A derby-appropriate tussle, tight margins, and late jeopardy. Selhurst under the lights (and noise) gives Palace their edge—especially in the opening 45.</p> </body> </html>
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