Everton vs Crystal Palace

<div> <h2>Everton vs Crystal Palace: Data-Driven Preview, Picks and Prices</h2> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Goodison Park hosts an intriguing early-season litmus test. Everton are improved and sturdier at home, while Crystal Palace have been one of the surprise packages, unbeaten with top-two away form. Both camps maintain coaching continuity, and the weather should be kind — conditions for a fair, representative contest.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Everton’s home profile is unmistakable: pragmatic and stingy. They’ve conceded just 0.33 goals per game at Goodison and posted clean sheets in 67% of home matches, which has contributed to a perfect 0% hit rate on Over 2.5 at home so far. Crystal Palace travel exceptionally well (2.33 points per game away) and have conceded only 0.33 goals per away match, also with a 67% clean sheet rate. The implication is strong: margins are thin, and totals skew low.</p> <h3>Team News and Tactical Ripples</h3> <p>Per the latest updates, Everton are without Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (suspension), a meaningful loss given his ball progression (13 key passes) and box-to-box thrust. Branthwaite’s hamstring issue may limit central defensive rotation. Palace miss long-term midfield anchor Cheick Doucouré and defender Chadi Riad, but the depth has held up well and the mood is buoyant around their European push.</p> <p>Likely XIs: Everton — Pickford; O’Brien, Keane, Tarkowski, Mykolenko; Garner, Gueye, Iroegbunam; McNeil, Ndiaye, Beto. Palace — Henderson; Muñoz, Richards, Guéhi, Mitchell; Wharton, Hughes, Kamada; Sarr, Mateta, Nketiah.</p> <h3>How It Plays: Match Flow</h3> <p>Expect a controlled first half with few clear chances: both teams have a 0% rate of first-half Over 1.5 this season. Palace are excellent at establishing a platform away (two first-half away leads in three), while Everton’s home opponents haven’t scored first yet. That points to a 0-0 or 1-0 at the interval rather than a shootout.</p> <p>Second-half adjustments should raise the tempo. Palace’s wide thrust through Ismaïla Sarr and overlaps from Muñoz can generate corners and late pressure (Palace have scored in the 76–90’ window twice already). Everton’s route tends to be via set plays and Ndiaye’s carrying, but KDH’s absence is a notable creative tax against a compact Palace block.</p> <h3>Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Everton home Over 2.5: 0% (total goals 1.33 per game)</li> <li>Everton home clean sheets: 67%; Palace away clean sheets: 67%</li> <li>Palace away PPG: 2.33 (league away average 1.08)</li> <li>BTTS at these splits: Everton home 33%, Palace away 33%</li> </ul> <h3>Best Bets and Prices</h3> <p><strong>Under 2.5 Goals (1.65)</strong> is the headline angle, backed by both sides’ defensive overperformance and Everton’s Goodison unders trend. The second tier includes <strong>Draw/Away Double Chance (1.50)</strong> — reflective of Palace’s unbeaten start and strong away results — and <strong>BTTS No (1.85)</strong> due to the twin 33% BTTS rates at the relevant splits. A stylistic niche play is <strong>Over 9.5 Corners (1.73)</strong>, powered by Palace’s away corners average (13.33) and wide-oriented attack.</p> <h3>Value and Props</h3> <p>Two price-led options stand out. First, <strong>Crystal Palace Draw No Bet (2.00)</strong> aligns with their 2.33 away PPG and the fact Everton have 0.00 PPG when conceding first. Second, a bolder derivative: <strong>Everton Under 0.5 Team Goals (3.10)</strong> — a nod to Palace’s 67% away clean sheets, although it contends with Everton’s decent home chance creation from wide and set pieces.</p> <p>For a player prop, <strong>Ismaïla Sarr Anytime (4.33)</strong> offers upside. Sarr has three league goals and profiles as Palace’s most reliable transition threat; his movement between full-back and center-back channels can trouble an Everton back line still adjusting to absences and suspensions.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>A low-scoring draw or narrow away result fits the numbers. The recommended staking plan builds around the total: Under 2.5 as the anchor, supported by Draw/Away protection and BTTS No. Corners over is the pace-and-wide-play hedge.</p> </div>