Everton vs Aston Villa

<div> <h2>Everton vs Aston Villa: Data Points Toffees’ Way as Villa Seek Spark</h2> <p>Everton welcome Aston Villa to the Hill Dickinson Stadium on September 13 in a clash shaped by starkly contrasting starts. Sean Dyche’s side have opened with two wins from three and a spotless home sheet, while Unai Emery’s Villa arrive winless, goalless, and bruised by injuries and form.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Everton carry genuine momentum: six points from three, back-to-back wins, and a comfortable 2-0 home victory over Brighton that highlighted their renewed front-foot approach. The Toffees have scored first in two of their three matches and defended advantages superbly at home.</p> <p>Villa, by contrast, have yet to find the net this league season. A draw with Newcastle was followed by defeats at Brentford and a heavy 0-3 home reverse to Crystal Palace. The headline statistic is stark: zero goals in three games, with long spells spent trailing—especially away, where their average time trailing hits 87% and they concede first on average after 12 minutes.</p> <h3>Injuries and Team News</h3> <p>Everton’s absences are mostly defensive—Adam Aznou, Jarrad Branthwaite, and Nathan Patterson are out—testing depth but not yet hurting outcomes at home. The attacking blend of Iliman Ndiaye and Beto, backed by Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and James Garner, has been productive and energetic. Ndiaye’s finishing (two goals) and pressing have set the tone early in matches.</p> <p>Villa’s list is more disruptive to their core: Amadou Onana, Boubacar Kamara, and Ross Barkley are sidelined, depriving Emery of ball-winning and creative options through midfield. That loss of balance has been visible in slow progression, limited chance creation, and an isolated Ollie Watkins who has six shots but no goals so far.</p> <h3>Tactical Themes</h3> <ul> <li>Everton’s Fast Starts: The Toffees’ average minute of the first goal is 15 (23 at home). Expect them to target early pressure in front of a buoyant home crowd.</li> <li>Villa’s Early Concessions: Conceding first on 67% of occasions overall and particularly early away points to another uphill battle if they fall behind.</li> <li>Midfield Control: With Villa’s midfield light on disruptors and creators due to injuries, Everton’s Dewsbury-Hall and Garner should find passing lanes and second balls, giving the hosts territorial control.</li> <li>Defensive Assurance at Home: Everton’s back line has been organized and direct in clearances; home lead-defending has been perfect so far.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Matchups</h3> <p><strong>Dewsbury-Hall vs Villa Double Pivot:</strong> The Leicester recruit’s timing between the lines and set-piece quality has lifted Everton’s chance quality. Without Kamara and Barkley, Villa’s central zones may be overrun.</p> <p><strong>Watkins vs Tarkowski/Keane:</strong> Watkins’ movement is dangerous, but service has been intermittent. If Everton deny midfield supply, his threat diminishes, reinforcing the case for a home clean sheet.</p> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <ul> <li>Everton home: 100% wins, 100% clean sheets, 100% scored first.</li> <li>Villa away: 0.00 PPG, 0 goals scored; average minute conceded first 12’.</li> <li>BTTS: Everton home 0%; Villa overall 0%—a powerful convergence for BTTS No.</li> <li>Totals: Villa matches average just 1.33 goals; Everton’s home match finished 2-0.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>BTTS No around 1.87 is well-supported by both teams’ early-season profiles. Everton to win at 2.45 looks generous given venue splits and Villa’s lack of cutting edge. If you prefer a safer angle, Everton to score first at 1.93 captures the early-goal pattern without needing the full result. For bigger prices, Villa to fail to score (2.85) and Everton clean sheet (2.95) are logical extensions of the same thesis.</p> <h3>Projected Flow</h3> <p>Dyche’s Everton should press the opening 20 minutes, aiming to capitalize on Villa’s first-phase fragility. If the hosts net early, the game may resemble Everton’s win over Brighton: controlled without excess risk, limiting transition chances for Villa. Expect Emery to adjust with wide overloads and fullback support, but without midfield ball-winners, Everton should keep the balance in their favor.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Everything points to a low-scoring Everton win with a high probability of Villa drawing a blank. The data-backed selections are BTTS No, Everton to win, and Everton to score first. For a touch of ambition, Villa to score No and a nibble on Ndiaye as an anytime scorer are in-play given his direct involvement in Everton’s early attacks.</p> </div> Note: Early-season samples are small; stake sensibly and consider diversification across correlated markets.