Preston vs Sheffield Wednesday

<div> <h2>Preston vs Sheffield Wednesday: Deepdale data points favour the hosts</h2> <p>Preston North End’s playoff push resumes at Deepdale against bottom club Sheffield Wednesday on New Year’s Day, and The Oracle sees multiple angles where the numbers lean heavily toward the home side. Preston sit seventh with 37 points, while Wednesday remain adrift after just one league win and a 17-match winless streak in the Championship. Trendlines, venue splits and game‑state metrics all point to advantage Preston.</p> <h3>Home steel vs away frailty</h3> <p>Preston have been steady at Deepdale: 1.67 points per game, 42% wins, and just 17% defeats. Wednesday’s away profile is starkly inferior (0.70 PPG; 50% defeats). The visitors’ defensive record is a core driver: they’re conceding 1.96 goals per match overall (1.60 on the road) and pair that with the league’s weakest resilience when the game turns against them.</p> <h3>Game state: when Wednesday trail, they collapse</h3> <p>Two statistics define Wednesday’s season: equalizing rate 12% and lead defending rate 10%. In simple terms, when they fall behind they almost never claw it back, and when they do go ahead, they struggle to hold it. Compare that with Preston’s equalizing rate (62% overall, 71% at home) and you get the match’s most powerful narrative: the longer this stays level, the more likely Preston’s late pressure will separate the sides.</p> <h3>Flow and timing favour a strong Preston finish</h3> <p>Preston are a robust second‑half team, with 55% of their goals after the break and a notable 10 goals in the 76–90’ window. Wednesday, by contrast, concede heavily across both halves. Add Wednesday’s average “minute conceded first” at 20 and Deepdale’s atmosphere, and it’s not hard to envisage a first‑half platform and second‑half control from the hosts.</p> <h3>Goals picture: BTTS has a case</h3> <p>While Preston’s season skew is modest on overs, the venue-specific splits push toward both teams contributing. Preston’s home BTTS sits at 67%, and Wednesday’s away BTTS is 70%. That underpins a value case for BTTS at near‑even money. Nevertheless, The Oracle prefers the match winner and second‑half winner angles with higher confidence due to Wednesday’s game‑state profile.</p> <h3>Key players and threats</h3> <p>For Preston, Daniel Jebbison leads with five league goals, while Alfie Devine and Lewis Dobbin provide creative thrust. Devine’s recent goal (Dec 29) and advanced positioning make him a lively anytime price. Wednesday rely on Barry Bannan’s guile and Charlie McNeill’s movement, but their cumulative attacking output (0.78 goals per game) remains among the league’s weakest.</p> <h3>Head-to-head and schedule context</h3> <p>Preston won 3-2 at Hillsborough in late November, a result consistent with the sides’ seasonal trajectories. Both clubs come off the festive period congestion, but Preston’s squad depth and in-game management have been superior. There are no decisive injury flags in current previews, and sentiment from bettors and analysts leans solidly toward the hosts.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s verdict</h3> <ul> <li>Primary: Preston to Win (1.53). Wednesday’s winless run, bottom-tier game‑state metrics and Preston’s home base make this the anchor play.</li> <li>Secondary: BTTS Yes (1.85) based on the high BTTS venue splits; Second Half Winner – Preston (1.83) given strong late-goal profile; Preston Over 1.5 Team Goals (1.62) against a defense conceding nearly two per match.</li> <li>Prop: Alfie Devine Anytime (3.20) — live runner from midfield zones against a porous unit that struggles to track late runners and second-phase threats.</li> </ul> <p>Expect Preston to control territory and chances, with a strong probability of the decisive moments arriving after the break. The safest angle is the home win; the best value add-ons are second-half winner and BTTS.</p> </div>