Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo

<div> <h2>Istra 1961 vs Slaven Belupo: Form, Factors and Value</h2> <p>Stadion Aldo Drosina sets the stage on November 29 (17:15 UTC) for a mid-table HNL clash with real stakes. Istra 1961, thriving at home, host a Slaven Belupo side in decent overall form but inconsistent on the road. The weather forecast in Pula is clear and cool (10–13°C), ideal for a clean, tactical contest.</p> <h3>Team News and Expected Shapes</h3> <p>Istra arrive with a near full-strength squad and continuity in selection and coaching. Slaven Belupo travel without forward Ivan Božić, a notable miss that trims their attacking rotation and penalty-box presence. Expect Istra to keep their robust home back line of Marešić–Koski, with Kadušić providing thrust on the flank, while Maurić and Frederiksen link with the mobile forwards. Slaven’s attacking burden falls to Ante Šuto and Josip Mitrović, with Michael Agbekpornu anchoring midfield transitions and the emerging Adriano Jagušić adding energy between the lines.</p> <h3>Venue Advantage vs Away Fragility</h3> <p>Istra’s returns at Aldo Drosina are convincing: 2.00 points per game, 57% win rate and only 1.14 GA. By contrast, Slaven’s road numbers reveal the soft underbelly—2.00 GA, 0% away clean sheets and 71% BTTS. In practical terms, that means Istra are highly likely to score and, once in front, Slaven struggle mightily away to respond (0.00 PPG when conceding first). This is the fulcrum of the betting angle toward Istra with draw protection.</p> <h3>Form Lines and Momentum</h3> <p>Istra’s last eight show a meaningful uptick: 1.75 PPG (+28.7%), and defensive tightening to 1.00 GA. The 2-1 home win over Dinamo was a statement of ceiling. Slaven are unbeaten in six overall and have improved their goal balance recently (1.63 GF, 1.38 GA across the last eight), but their positive streak is largely home-driven. On the road, they remain high-event and fragile late in games.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Expect a Busy Second Half</h3> <p>Data tilts strongly toward late drama. Istra score 67% of their home goals after the break; Slaven away concede heavily in the final quarter (five goals against in 76–90). Both teams’ second halves carry the bulk of goal events. This pattern supports over 2.5 and “highest-scoring half: second” angles, and it also favors Istra if they can strike first and control transitions.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchups to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Kadušić vs Slaven’s right flank: 46 tackles and 2 assists underline his two-way influence; overlaps can pin Slaven back.</li> <li>Marešić/Koski aerial control vs Šuto/Mitrović: Slaven’s direct entries and set pieces are a key route; Istra’s centre-backs have solid duel and block numbers.</li> <li>Agbekpornu’s midfield duels (138 duels, 71 won) against Radošević’s screening (35 tackles): whoever wins central second balls will tilt territory.</li> </ul> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>Public lean favors Istra at home, but prices still offer value. Istra DNB at 1.67 builds in protection against Slaven’s form uptick. Totals markets look generous: Slaven away matches hit over 2.5 in 71%, consistent with their 3.14 away goals average. BTTS at 1.77 tracks Slaven’s season-long 79% BTTS rate.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Istra’s home strength and Slaven’s away concessions point to the hosts edging a game with goals. With Božić out, Slaven still carry threat via Šuto and Mitrović, but the Pula factor and late-game patterns favor Istra.</p> <p><strong>Lean:</strong> Istra 2-1.</p> </div>