CS Herediano vs CS Cartagines
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<html> <head><title>Herediano vs Cartaginés: Tactical Preview, Odds and Best Bets</title></head> <body> <h2>Overview</h2> <p>Two historic powers meet in Heredia with trajectories pulling in opposite directions. Herediano are stuck in a rut—seven league matches without a win and four straight losses—while Cartaginés continue to impress with defensive control and steady point accumulation. The market leans slightly to the hosts, but the numbers say this is anything but straightforward.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Herediano’s season line reads 3W-4D-6L, 12 goals for and 18 against. The recent eight-match sample is worse: 0.63 points per game and just 0.63 goals per game. They’ve been conceding first far too often and chasing matches. Cartaginés, meanwhile, are 4th in the table and 2nd in the last-eight form table. They’ve tightened margins with draws lately, but their baseline is robust: only 0.50 goals conceded per match this season and seven clean sheets in 12.</p> <h3>Tactics and Matchup</h3> <p>Expect Herediano to control phases of possession through Elías Aguilar’s distribution and Allan Cruz’s movement, aiming to release Marcel Hernández. But this attack has misfired in the league, and the on-ball dominance has not translated into consistent high-quality chances. Cartaginés are well structured without the ball, drop into compact lines, and are excellent at defending their box—away clean sheets at 50% is elite. On transition, the visitors pick their moments; Marco Ureña offers the vertical threat, with Ulloa and Zúñiga chipping in timely contributions.</p> <h3>Goal Timing and Game Flow</h3> <p>The split is clear: Cartaginés’ away games come alive late. They score 80% of their away goals after halftime, and concede 75% after the break. Herediano also skew later, with 58% of goals scored in the second period. A cagy opening half—Cartaginés away have produced 67% halftime draws—should yield into a more open final third of the match.</p> <h3>Venue and Psychology</h3> <p>The Estadio Eladio Rosabal Cordero typically helps Herediano, but this season the home metrics are shaky: 1.14 PPG at home, 1.71 GA, and opponents scoring first 71% of the time. Pressure will build quickly if they fall behind. Cartaginés are comfortable absorbing that pressure and managing game states; they’ve trailed only 9% of minutes away from home.</p> <h3>Key Players</h3> <ul> <li>Marcel Hernández (Herediano): Goalscorer with pedigree; needs service and support. If he’s isolated, Herediano struggle to generate big chances.</li> <li>Elías Aguilar (Herediano): Chance creator; his set-piece delivery could be Herediano’s best route to a breakthrough against a compact block.</li> <li>Marco Ureña (Cartaginés): Timely scorer on the road; stretches defenses and punishes turnovers.</li> <li>Cartaginés back line: Collective MVP status—positionally sound, win first contacts, and limit high-xG looks.</li> </ul> <h3>Stat Lines That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Cartaginés Over 2.5: 17% (away 17%).</li> <li>Cartaginés clean sheets: 58% overall; away 50%.</li> <li>Herediano last 8: 0.63 GF per match; no win in 7.</li> <li>Herediano opponent scored first: 69% overall; 71% at home.</li> </ul> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <p>Under 2.5 at 1.70 is the anchor play, supported by Cartaginés’ stifling defensive numbers and Herediano’s offensive downturn. The double chance (Draw/Away) at 1.77 takes a principled stand against home favoritism in a matchup where the away side’s process has consistently outperformed. First-half draw at 2.05 is backed by Cartaginés’ 67% away HT draws. The late-action profile across both teams makes 2nd half the higher-scoring half at 2.15 a fair value dart.</p> <h3>Weather and Conditions</h3> <p>Humid late-October evenings in Heredia can slow tempo and amplify defensive play. That nudges this even further toward a tight, lower-scoring affair—another feather in the cap for the Unders.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>The Oracle projects a disciplined away performance and a low goal count. Herediano’s best chance is a set piece or Marcel’s individual quality; Cartaginés’ structure should limit open-play concessions. Expect a narrow result: 0-1 or 1-1 most likely.</p> </body> </html>
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