CS Herediano vs LD Alajuelense
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<html> <head> <title>Herediano vs Alajuelense: Tactical Preview, Odds and Value Picks</title> <meta name="description" content="In-depth analysis of Herediano vs Alajuelense in Costa Rica's Primera División: trends, injuries, tactics, odds and best bets." /> </head> <body> <h2>Herediano vs Alajuelense – Derby edges favor the visitors’ defense</h2> <p> The Oracle views this as a classic Costa Rican chess match: Herediano seeking a statement at home against an Alajuelense side that has quietly assembled one of the division’s most reliable defenses. League context matters—Alajuelense sit 4th (19 pts) with a five-game unbeaten run and three straight draws, while Herediano are 7th (13 pts) and trending downward with five without a win and back-to-back blanks. </p> <h3>Form Trajectories and Venue Splits</h3> <p> Herediano’s home output reads 1.33 PPG, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.50 per game. The underlying tempo at the Estadio Eladio Rosabal Cordero can spike (2.83 total goals per home game), but that’s skewed by a 3-3 against Saprissa. Recent reality: 0-2 vs Guadalupe, 0-0 vs Sporting SJ, 1-0 vs Liberia—a leaner profile, and importantly, a current drought in front of goal. </p> <p> Alajuelense’s away picture is stark: 1.60 PPG, 0.80 scored and just 0.60 conceded, with 60% away clean sheets. Their away games average only 1.40 total goals—exactly the kind of suppression that travels in tight derbies. In the last eight, Alajuelense rank second in the form table (13 pts), Herediano eighth (9 pts). </p> <h3>Goal Timing and Game State Management</h3> <p> The Oracle anticipates patience. Alajuelense net 75% of their away goals after the break and score first in 64% overall. Conversely, Herediano have allowed the opener in 67% of their home matches and only score first at home 17%. Expect Alajuelense to strangle transitions and wait for a mistake. With both sides drawing 36% of fixtures, a controlled tempo is likely. </p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p> Herediano’s attack leans on veteran craft—Elías Aguilar as creator and Marcel Hernández as focal point—but the numbers say chance creation is inconsistent and finishing has gone cold. In midfield battles, Alajuelense’s structure—guided by Celso Borges’ control and the athleticism of Larry Angulo/Alejandro Bran between lines—has reduced opponent quality. The back unit’s metrics (0.60 GA away, 60% CS) reflect compact distances, low-cross concessions, and strong first contact on aerials. </p> <h3>Squad News and Availability</h3> <p> Reports indicate Herediano face injury concerns: Fernán Faerrón (metatarsal fracture) is out, with further question marks over José Pérez, a knee issue to A. Cruz Esquivel, and Joaquín Hernández García also sidelined. Depth stress at the back and in midfield balance doesn’t help a side already struggling to generate high-value chances. Alajuelense, meanwhile, can lean on experienced heads—Borges and possibly Joel Campbell minutes—plus recent contributors like Jeison Lucumí and Anthony Hernández. </p> <h3>Market View: Where’s the Value?</h3> <ul> <li>Alajuelense DNB (2.05): Visitors are the better “true” side on recent evidence; push protection is pivotal in a derby.</li> <li>Draw/Alajuelense Double Chance (1.53): Fits the three consecutive draws trend and Herediano’s inability to sustain pressure.</li> <li>BTTS No (2.00): Both teams’ BTTS rates sit at 36%, Alajuelense away clean sheets at 60%, and Herediano’s attack is in a lull.</li> <li>Under 2.25 (2.00): Alajuelense suppress totals away; the split under adds insurance on a 1-1 or 0-2 ceiling game.</li> <li>Correct Score 0-1 (8.50): A speculative prop aligned with the defensive thesis.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Stat to Remember</h3> <p> Alajuelense allow 0.60 away goals with a 60% away clean-sheet rate. Herediano have failed to score in 45% of games and in their last two. That singular matchup edge informs The Oracle’s entire card. </p> <h3>Projected Game Script</h3> <p> Expect a cagey first half with Herediano’s early build nullified by Alajuelense’s compact block. The second half opens as fatigue and humidity weigh in, favoring Alajuelense’s vertical moments and set-piece threat. One goal may settle it—likely for the visitors—though the draw remains a live outcome if Herediano survive the key transition waves. </p> <p><em>The Oracle’s angle: Back Alajuelense with protection, fade goals, and embrace the defensive realities shaping this derby.</em></p> </body> </html>
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