CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge
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Match Preview
<html> <head><title>CSKA Sofia II vs Sportist Svoge – Match Preview, Odds & Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>CSKA Sofia II host Sportist Svoge in the Bulgarian Second League on 3 October 2025 (13:00 UTC). The hosts sit in mid-table with a strong home trend, while Svoge hover just above the bottom group. With no major injury news or suspensions reported and mild weather forecast in Sofia, conditions look ideal for a fair, form-driven contest.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>CSKA II arrive unbeaten in four league matches and have clearly trended up over the last eight fixtures: points per game up 25%, goals for up 7.1%, goals against down 28.6%. Their home numbers are the bedrock—2.25 goals scored and just 0.50 conceded per game. Svoge, by contrast, are winless in six overall and have suffered three straight away defeats, averaging just 0.50 goals per away match.</p> <h3>Venue Split: A Decisive Edge</h3> <p>The venue divergence is stark: CSKA II post 2.50 PPG at home (3W,1D), Svoge manage 0.25 PPG away (0W,1D,3L). CSKA’s leadDefendingRate at home is 100%—when they go in front, they stay there. Svoge’s away leadDefendingRate is 0%, and their away ppg when conceding first is 0.00. These situational metrics strongly favor the hosts.</p> <h3>Second-Half Patterns Likely to Decide It</h3> <p>The most compelling storyline is after the interval. CSKA have yet to concede a second-half goal at home (4 GF, 0 GA). Svoge have not scored a second-half goal away (0 GF), and concede more after HT. Add Svoge’s 89% overall rate of being level at half-time and CSKA’s ability to tilt matches late, and the case for a home-tilted second half is powerful.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies and Key Players</h3> <p>CSKA II’s attack is shared among several contributors—G. Chorbadzhiyski, Martin Sorakov, Ilian Antonov, and M. Papazov have all scored recently, allowing flexible patterns: early thrusts or measured pressure into late surges. Svoge are more reliant on Martin Ganchev, who has supplied critical goals, but the team’s away creativity tends to fade after the break.</p> <h3>Market Check: Where’s the Value?</h3> <ul> <li>Second Half Winner – CSKA (1.73): Backed by dominant 2H splits (home GF 4, GA 0; Svoge away GF 0, GA 3). Implied ~58% vs an estimate closer to 70%.</li> <li>CSKA -1 AH (1.68): Two of CSKA’s three home wins have been by 2+ goals; Svoge’s away output suggests a margin is plausible with push protection on a one-goal win.</li> <li>CSKA Clean Sheet (1.83): CSKA home clean sheets 50%, Svoge away failed to score 50%, and no second-half away goals—edges combine favorably.</li> <li>HT/FT Draw/CSKA (4.00): Svoge draw at HT in 89% overall; CSKA tend to turn the screw late. The price outstrips the likely probability.</li> <li>Correct Score 2-0 (6.00): Two 2-0 home results already for CSKA; fits the clean-sheet and margin narratives.</li> </ul> <h3>Risks and Caveats</h3> <p>CSKA’s overall BTTS rate is high (70%), which tempers conviction on the clean-sheet angle—though venue-specific data points to stronger home defense. Reserve sides can also spring rotation surprises; however, no significant changes are currently signalled.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>CSKA Sofia II to control the second half and win with authority, most likely to nil. The price on Second Half Winner – CSKA stands out as the cleanest value, with Asian -1 and the clean sheet as close runners-up. For those seeking a higher return, HT/FT Draw/CSKA and a 2-0 correct score are well-priced stabs aligned with the data.</p> </body> </html>
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