Guarani Campinas vs Brusque

<div> <h2>Guarani vs Brusque: Data-Driven Preview, Picks and Tactical Storylines</h2> <p>Campinas hosts a finely poised Serie C encounter where the numbers point to a narrow, low-to-mid total contest. Guarani’s home resilience collides with Brusque’s excellent away profile, and the market may have shaded this slightly too far toward the hosts.</p> <h3>Form and Motivation</h3> <p>Brusque arrive 6th with 28 points—on a two-win, two-clean-sheet run—and a clear away strength that ranks among the league’s best. Guarani sit 8th on 27 points, on a five-match unbeaten overall run but with a measured attacking ceiling at home (1.00 GF per game). Sentiment differs: Brusque are “cautiously optimistic,” while Guarani supporters remain anxious after a muted off-season and questions around end-product.</p> <h3>Venue dynamics: stalwart home defense vs strong traveling attack</h3> <p>Guarani at the Brinco de Ouro are compact: 0.80 goals conceded and an elite 83% rate defending a lead. Their issue is scoring—40% failed-to-score at home. Brusque, meanwhile, travel well: 1.56 away PPG, 1.44 away GF, and they’ve scored first in two-thirds of their away matches. That ability to start on the front foot is a critical separator and underpins the recommendation for Brusque to find at least one goal.</p> <h3>Timing tells: who strikes when?</h3> <p>Guarani are most productive in two bursts—16-30 and 61-75—yet they’ve been vulnerable late (0 GF, 5 GA from 76-90 overall; 0 GF, 2 GA at home). Brusque away have decisive first-half contributions (GF 5 from 31-45) and another gear late (76-90 GF 3). Overlay this with Brusque’s 67% away “scored first” rate and Guarani’s average first concession at home around minute 21, and the first-half DNB (Brusque) at the price appeals.</p> <h3>Tactical angles and players to watch</h3> <p>Expect both sides to keep a compact mid-block. Guarani’s defensive core—helped by the tidy ball use of Alan Santos (91% pass accuracy)—seeks to restrict transitions. In attack, Bruno Santos and Mirandinha must be efficient against a Brusque defense that has tightened recently but still concedes the majority of its goals after the break.</p> <p>For Brusque, Guilherme Pira’s hot run (vital strikes vs Caxias and CSA and an opener vs Londrina) adds pace and directness between the lines. Diego Mathias has contributed in away fixtures and will target Bugre’s late-game dip. If Guarani’s veteran options (with David Braz’s fitness being watched) are rotated, that late segment could be decisive.</p> <h3>Totals and game script</h3> <p>The blended total sits near 2.2 goals. Guarani’s home matches average 1.80; Brusque away 2.56. With decent clean-sheet rates on both sides and Guarani’s scoring volatility, Under 2.25 is the number that best balances protection and value. That said, live bettors should note Guarani’s late concessions and Brusque’s 76-90 scoring: if 0-0 or 1-0 around 70’, a small live Over or “Brusque next goal” can be sensible.</p> <h3>Market and value assessment</h3> <ul> <li>Brusque Over 0.5 (1.50): Their away scoring rate (~78%) outpaces the implied 66.7%—the cleanest edge on the board.</li> <li>Draw or Brusque (1.68): Brusque’s away “not losing” rate is 66.7%; price implies ~59.5%—value on the away resilience.</li> <li>Under 2.25 (1.84): Fair line close to the blended projection; Guarani’s attacking floor and both teams’ CS profile support it.</li> <li>HT DNB Brusque (2.28): Strong first-half away metrics (56% leading at HT) and Guarani’s early volatility make this an attractive plus-money angle.</li> <li>Correct Score 1-1 (4.80): A price-led sprinkle that fits the overall statistical profile and prevalent mid-total outcomes.</li> </ul> <h3>Outlook</h3> <p>Expect a balanced, strategic encounter where Brusque’s away sharpness finds a way onto the scoresheet. Guarani’s structure and lead-retention keep this tight, anchoring the under lean. On balance: Brusque to score, and the draw sits live—1-1 the headline longshot.</p> </div>