Mirassol vs Juventude
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<html> <head><title>Mirassol vs Juventude: Betting Preview and Tactical Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Mirassol vs Juventude – Form, Data and Best Odds</h2> <p>Mirassol welcome Juventude to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia with the hosts flying high in 4th and the visitors in 18th. Local sentiment is buoyant around Mirassol’s fast start and stable coaching, while Juventude face scrutiny after a difficult run and stark away frailties. With mild, dry weather forecast, conditions should encourage open play.</p> <h3>Why goals are the headline angle</h3> <ul> <li>Totals profile: Mirassol home matches average 3.30 total goals; Juventude away 3.40.</li> <li>Market mismatch: Over 2.5 hits 60% (Mirassol home) and 70% (Juventude away), yet is priced at 1.95 (~51% implied).</li> <li>Flow: Mirassol’s last eight show goals rising at both ends (GF +13%, GA +19%).</li> </ul> <p>Mirassol’s second-half surge (65% of home goals after the break) dovetails with Juventude’s late leakage (7 conceded in 76–90 away), suggesting sustained scoring potential deep into the match. “Highest scoring half: 2nd” at 2.05 lines up with this pattern.</p> <h3>Home supremacy: data behind a handicap lean</h3> <ul> <li>Venue dominance: Mirassol are unbeaten at home (6W-4D-0L), 2.20 PPG, and score 2.30 per game.</li> <li>Juventude’s travel sickness: 0.40 PPG away, 2.90 GA, 80% losses; trail at half-time an extraordinary 90%.</li> <li>Scoreline reality: 3 of Mirassol’s 6 home wins were by 2+ goals; Juventude have suffered several multi-goal defeats.</li> </ul> <p>That underpins Mirassol -1 (Asian) at 1.95. The push protection on a single-goal win is valuable against a side whose away time-leading share is just 2%.</p> <h3>First 45 minutes market: a strong statistical case</h3> <p>Juventude have been behind at the interval in 9 of 10 away matches (90%). Mirassol score first at home 70% of the time with an average first goal around the 25th minute. At even money (2.00), Mirassol HT offers a high-upside price that still accounts for natural regression from that extreme split.</p> <h3>Key players to watch</h3> <ul> <li>Francisco da Costa (Mirassol): 6 league goals, scored on 17 Sep, central to the home attack; anytime scorer at 2.50 stands out against a defense allowing 2.90 goals per away game.</li> <li>Reinaldo (Mirassol): 7 goals from wide/set-piece situations; a persistent threat on dead balls.</li> <li>E. Martínez (Juventude): Leading scorer (4), capable from range and transitions; however, Juventude’s away production remains limited (0.50 GF).</li> </ul> <h3>Tactical picture</h3> <p>Mirassol’s controlled buildup and disciplined press should pin Juventude back, generating volume in the final third. With a deep block, Juventude will rely on set-plays and sporadic counters. Mirassol’s in-game resilience is notable: a 100% home equalizing rate and strong PPG when conceding first suggest they can manage setbacks without losing structure.</p> <h3>Risks and counterpoints</h3> <p>Mirassol’s home BTTS is high (80%) and their last-8 defense has softened, which can complicate “win to nil” propositions. Juventude’s recent uptick (1.25 PPG over last eight) warrants respect, and they arrive fresher (seven days since last match vs four for Mirassol). Still, the underlying away splits remain stark.</p> <h3>Best betting selections</h3> <ol> <li><strong>Over 2.5 Goals (1.95)</strong> – Combined hit-rates and totals profile indicate value.</li> <li><strong>Mirassol -1 Asian (1.95)</strong> – Heavy away losses and home margin profile support the handicap.</li> <li><strong>Mirassol HT (2.00)</strong> – Juventude’s 90% HT away-losing rate is a standout edge.</li> <li><strong>Mirassol Over 1.5 Team Goals (1.70)</strong> – 2.30 GF vs 2.90 GA (away) aligns for 2+ home goals.</li> <li><strong>Francisco da Costa Anytime (2.50)</strong> – Form striker vs porous back line.</li> </ol> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Mirassol should control territory and chances, with the data pointing to a high-goal environment and a strong likelihood of a home win, potentially by margin. The totals and first-half angles carry the most attractive blend of probability and price.</p> </body> </html>
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