Gremio vs Botafogo
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<html> <body> <h2>Grêmio vs Botafogo: Unders Appeal as Rio Side Chase Top-Four Momentum</h2> <p>Grêmio host Botafogo in Porto Alegre on 24 September with the sides at opposite ends of the confidence spectrum. Botafogo sit fifth and pushing to cement a Copa Libertadores berth, while Grêmio hover mid-table, still searching for a reliable attacking formula after an inconsistent run this term.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Botafogo arrive with 39 points from 23 games and an excellent +17 goal difference, buoyed by a recent 1-0 win over Atlético-MG and a string of strong results over the past two months . Their eight-game form is competitive (13 points), and crucially, their away profile has been one of the league’s most controlled: 1.55 points per game, just 0.45 goals conceded per match, and a 55% clean-sheet rate away from home.</p> <p>Grêmio, meanwhile, are under pressure. The Tricolor have struggled to turn home advantage into goals, averaging only 0.82 per game at their own ground and failing to score in 36% of those fixtures. A run of three consecutive home blanks has added to the scrutiny. While their defending has improved in the last eight league matches, the attack has regressed compared to season averages .</p> <h3>Tactical Snapshot: Late Botafogo, Anxious Grêmio</h3> <p>Botafogo’s structure has been solid, with a balanced front four where Jefferson Savarino and Chris Ramos have provided timely contributions. Their away goal timing pattern is striking: 75% of their away goals come after half-time, including a league-leading push between minutes 76 and 90 (six goals scored, none conceded). Expect a patient approach early, with the visitors happy to compress space and bet on late transitions.</p> <p>For Grêmio, Martin Braithwaite leads their scoring with six, but he hasn’t found the net since late July in the league. Edenilson’s experience helps the build-up, yet the final action has been lacking. If they concede first, the numbers are damning: Grêmio collect 0.00 PPG at home when falling behind and boast a 0% equalizing rate in such scenarios. That puts a premium on the first goal and suggests a conservative opening gambit from the hosts.</p> <h3>Why the Market Favors the Unders</h3> <p>Everything about the matchup leans to a low-event game: Grêmio’s home “over 2.5” is just 18%, Botafogo’s away “over 2.5” also 18%. The visitors’ away BTTS figure is a microscopic 9%. Combine that with Grêmio’s recent home drought and Botafogo’s efficiency at protecting leads (100% away lead-defending rate), and it’s no surprise the Under 2.5 is a primary angle.</p> <p>The first half specifically looks cagey. Grêmio’s home half-time draws stand at 55%, and Botafogo’s away half-time draws at 64%. Given the visitors’ tendency to accelerate late, a 0-0 or 1-1 at the break with more activity after the interval is a logical script.</p> <h3>Key Individuals to Watch</h3> <p>Savarino’s craft between the lines and Ramos’ running shape Botafogo’s late-game threat. Fullbacks like Marçal and Alex Telles (who’s chipped in with goals and a key penalty recently) support the wide overloads and provide set-piece tangibility. For Grêmio, Braithwaite remains the reference point. If he’s isolated, the hosts’ chance creation can quickly dry up, magnifying the importance of Edenilson’s delivery and any forward runs from midfield.</p> <h3>Momentum, Motivation, and Edges</h3> <p>Botafogo’s camp is optimistic—depth, structure, and a clear identity are resonating with supporters as they eye a top-four finish . Grêmio’s fanbase remains restless; their season can swing either way depending on how quickly they solve their home scoring problem . With three to four days of rest between matches and a benign weather forecast in Porto Alegre, little should disrupt a tactical arm-wrestle.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect a tight contest. The most compelling edges lie in low totals and anti-BTTS, with supplemental value in a first-half draw and Botafogo draw-no-bet thanks to their elite away defensive profile and late-game punch.</p> </body> </html>
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