Excursionistas vs Comunicaciones

<div> <h2>Excursionistas vs Comunicaciones: Cagey chess match where the first blow matters</h2> <p>Two in-form sides collide in the Primera B Metropolitana as Excursionistas host Comunicaciones. The numbers say this is less about volume and more about timing: both teams are superb at protecting a lead and almost never claw back once they fall behind.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Excursionistas have been trending upward, especially at home, where they average 1.86 points per game and keep clean sheets 43% of the time. A two-match home winning streak includes a commanding 4-2 over San Martín de Burzaco and a 3-1 against Deportivo Merlo. Across the last eight, they’ve improved across the board: points per game up 35.7%, goals for up 10.3%, and goals against down 26.5%.</p> <p>Comunicaciones come in with road confidence: 1.86 points per game away, three straight away wins, and a notable clean sheet at Brown (0-1). Their last eight also show a positive drift: points per game up 19.9% and goals for up 20%.</p> <h3>The First-Goal Imperative</h3> <p>This fixture may be decided by the opening strike. In the relevant venue splits, both teams show a perfect 100% lead-defending rate, and their equalizing rates sit at 0%. In short: they don’t come back, and they don’t let you back in.</p> <p>Comunicaciones are the division’s early birds: overall they’ve scored six times in the first 15 minutes and conceded none in that window; away they’ve netted three with none conceded in 0–15. Excursionistas, for their part, show an average first conceded minute at home of 22 when they do fall behind — hinting at early vulnerability that the visiting side could target.</p> <h3>Game Rhythm and Where It Tilts</h3> <p>Expect a careful first phase, but the second half is where the numbers bulge. Excursionistas see 63% of both their goals scored and conceded after half-time. Comunicaciones concede 69% of their goals after the interval, and their away splits show particular exposure between 61–75 minutes, just when Excursionistas tend to surge (home 46–60 GF 4, GA 1; overall late goals against can happen, too).</p> <h3>Key Match-ups and Players</h3> <p>For the hosts, <strong>Ian Vera</strong> has been the tone-setter with scoring bursts across recent matches, combining with <strong>Juan Pablo Zárate</strong> and the timely arrivals of <strong>Thiago Schiavulli</strong>. Comunicaciones lean on <strong>Sergio Sosa</strong>, who has delivered critical goals on the road, and <strong>Maximiliano Tunessi</strong> for penalty box presence. At the back, experienced heads like <strong>Ariel Coronel</strong> and goalkeepers <strong>Germán Yacaruso</strong>/<strong>Juan Pablo Lungarzo</strong> underpin the visitors’ away resilience.</p> <h3>Tactical Outlook</h3> <p>Given both teams’ 100% lead-protection, managerial conservatism is likely once someone edges in front. Excursionistas’ best chance may be to press around half-time — their strongest scoring window — and leverage their home defensive baseline (1.00 GA per game). Comunicaciones, conversely, will fancy an early strike to tilt the match state; their 0–15 output and clinical road transitions fit that plan.</p> <h3>Markets to Watch</h3> <ul> <li><strong>BTTS – No</strong> (1.70): Excursionistas’ home BTTS is only 43% and Comunicaciones’ away BTTS sits at 29%, reinforced by both sides’ 0% equalizing rate.</li> <li><strong>Under 2.25 goals</strong> (1.75): Comunicaciones away Over 1.5 is just 43%; Excursionistas home Over 2.5 only 43%. Both teams shut games down with a lead.</li> <li><strong>Highest scoring half – 2nd</strong> (2.20): Excursionistas concentrate 63% of their goals after the break; Comunicaciones concede 69% of their GA then.</li> <li><strong>Team to score first – Comunicaciones</strong> (2.40): Their early-goal profile is elite; Excursionistas’ rare early home concessions tend to come early when they do happen.</li> <li><strong>Correct Score 1–0 Excursionistas</strong> (5.25): This has been the single most common home scoreline for Excursionistas (29%).</li> </ul> <h3>Weather and Conditions</h3> <p>Mild temperatures and light winds in Buenos Aires should not hamper execution. Expect crisp transitions and a premium on set-piece discipline in a match that could pivot on one clean look.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Everything points to a narrow, control-heavy contest where the first goal is king. BTTS No and minor-total unders carry the strongest statistical backing, with second-half activity the likeliest period to decide it. If the hosts manage the mid-game surge, 1–0 is live; if the visitors land the first punch, their away game-state management has been impeccable.</p> </div>