Union Santa Fe vs Aldosivi
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<html> <head><title>Union Santa Fe vs Aldosivi: Data-Driven Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Union Santa Fe vs Aldosivi — Form, Trends and Value</h2> <p>Estadio 15 de Abril welcomes an Aldosivi side in dire straits for a late-night clash on October 4. Union, unbeaten at home and top-six by multiple performance indicators, face the league’s lightest attack: Aldosivi have scored once in nine league games and are winless.</p> <h3>Form Lines and Momentum</h3> <p>Union’s trajectory is solid: unbeaten in six, including statement away wins at Racing (3-2) and Gimnasia (3-1), and back-to-back draws that underline defensive resilience. Their 10-game profile reads 15 GF, 8 GA (1.50 for, 0.80 against). Aldosivi are at the opposite extreme: four straight losses, five consecutive games without a goal, and just 0.33 PPG overall. Away from Mar del Plata, it’s harsher: 0.00 PPG, 0.25 GF, 2.00 GA.</p> <h3>Venue Effects and Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Union’s home attack is more pragmatic than prolific (1.00 GF), yet they defend stoutly (0.75 GA, 50% clean sheets). Aldosivi’s away numbers are stark and speak to the expected pattern: long spells without the ball, early concessions, and minimal threat in transition.</p> <p>Union’s front line is keyed by Cristian Tarragona—a summer focal point and evident locker-room leader—supplemented by Marcelo Estigarribia’s movement and Mateo Del Blanco’s supply. Expect a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid, full-backs encouraged to push when settled. Aldosivi likely keep a compact 4-4-2/4-5-1 block, relying on Tiago Serrago’s channels; but with a teamScoredFirst of 0% and equalizingRate of 0%, they’ve yet to show in-game resilience.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Shape the Odds</h3> <ul> <li>Aldosivi failed to score in 89% of matches (8/9) and are 0.00 PPG away.</li> <li>Union home clean sheets: 50%; Aldosivi away FTS: 75%.</li> <li>Totals profile screams low: Union home over 2.5 only 25%; Aldosivi over 2.5 just 11% overall.</li> <li>When Union score first at home, they average 3.00 PPG; Aldosivi have 0.00 PPG when conceding first.</li> </ul> <h3>Goal Timing and In-Play Angles</h3> <p>Aldosivi concede 67% of their goals after the interval, with a notable late dip (76–90’). Union’s own split is balanced, but the context suggests in-play interest on a late insurance goal if Union lead. Even then, the under remains well supported by the base rates.</p> <h3>Value View: What the Prices Miss</h3> <p>Bookmakers have moved toward Union, but several markets still look generous versus the data. “Clean Sheet – Home” at 1.80 aligns with Aldosivi’s 89% failed-to-score rate. “Team to Score First: Union” at 1.50 remains a standout given Aldosivi’s 0% scored-first and 100% opponent-scored-first away. For a higher-payout angle that fits the low-total profile, “Union & Under 2.5” at 3.00 captures the median outcomes (1-0 or 2-0) best.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p>Cristian Tarragona’s penalty-box craft is central—he’s the obvious anytime scorer candidate at 2.75, particularly against an away defense conceding 2.00 per game. For Aldosivi, Tiago Serrago has their lone goal this campaign; the bigger question is whether the visitors can deliver enough entries into the final third to impact the match at all.</p> <h3>Intangibles: Rest, Weather, and Sentiment</h3> <p>Both sides arrive with a full week’s rest (Union 8 days; Aldosivi 7). Mild, clear Santa Fe weather suits a controlled Union game plan. Local sentiment strongly backs the hosts; Aldosivi’s traveling support is braced for a backs-to-the-wall night.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Everything points to Union’s control in a low-scoring contest. The safest reads are Under 2.5 and Union to keep a clean sheet, with fair value still available across those markets. A professional 1-0 or 2-0 feels like the median script—unless Aldosivi can break a months-long scoring funk against one of the division’s more efficient defenses.</p> </body> </html>
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